PREDICTING MONTHLY RAINFALL OF UMUDIKE, ABIA STATE USING BOX AND JENKINS APPROACH
Akwapoly Journal of Communication and Scientific Research (APJOCASR)
Keywords:
Rainfall, Time Series, Seasonal Arima,, ForecastingAbstract
The Box and Jenkins method has been utilized to identify and fit a time series model to the monthly rainfall series of Umudike, Abia State, Nigeria. The data used in the study was obtained from the National Root Crop Research Institute (NRCRI) and covers the period between 1981 and 2020. The data analysis has revealed that the most suitable model for the series is SARIMA (0,0,0) x (1,1,0)12. A seasonal autoregressive component and a moving average component characterize this model. This model's two-year prediction indicates that the forecast is relatively stable. This means the predicted rainfall values will be similar to the historical values within the next two years. The study has also shown that using the SARIMA (0,0,0) x (1,1,0)12 model is reliable for modelling and forecasting rainfall in Umudike, Abia State, Nigeria. This information can be helpful for various stakeholders in the agricultural sector, enabling them to make informed decisions regarding crop production and management.
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