SEASONALITY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: EFFECT OF PERIODIC MONEY SUPPLY IN NIGERIA
Akwapoly Journal of Communication and Scientific Research (APJOCASR)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60787/apjcasr.Vol8No2.40Keywords:
Correlation matrix, Model, Gross domestic product, Money supply, SeasonalityAbstract
This paper seeks to establish annually predictable changes in economic activities owing to periodic variation in the total stock of money available for circulation in Nigeria using quarterly money supply and gross domestic product extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin for thirteen years. The coefficient of determination and correlation matrix at lag 0 were used to determine the interaction between gross domestic product and money supply. The result reveals that the money supply in Nigeria is positively related to economic performance. The constant recurring pattern of crests and troughs in the time series plot of gross domestic product and the significant spikes at the seasonal lags of the autocorrelation function of gross domestic product establish the seasonality of economic growth. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests indicate the presence of unit roots in the bivariate series. Consequently, appropriate transformations were carried out to ensure that the bivariate time series is stationary and that the univariate seasonal time series model justifiably fits the gross domestic product and confirms the seasonality of economic growth in Nigeria.
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